Putin holds all the aces in a proxy war, gone horribly wrong for West
(This is a reprint from NewsBred)
West is forced to negotiate with Russia after three months of latter’s intervention in Ukraine to get rid of Ukronazis and creeping NATO’s footsteps on its doors.
Frankly, there is no option left for West.
It can’t force a showdown with Russia despite billions of aids and arms supply to Kiev for if it does, Vladimir Putin would turn the oil and gas taps dry to Europe which would plunge the Old Continent into darkness, cars into garages, transport mode on to rusting tracks etc.
It would force the manufacturing giants like BMW or Bayer to either shut down or locate themselves out of Europe, either way causing a massive unemployment and public unrest which would force regime changes from Berlin to Paris to Geneva, you name it.
Europe is in no position to get rid of Russia’s energy supplies. The typical diesel blend which Russia provides and for which Europe’s processing units are accordingly oriented, can’t be replaced overnight.
Even if the West tries, and it is trying, the Middle East like Qatar or Oman can’t make up for the deficit of nearly 40% of Europe’s energy need if Russia was to turn off the tap tomorrow.
Besides, why would Middle East turn its back on its traditional customers and shift to new European clients for oversupply of oil and gas comes with its own cost: What if traditional customer shift en masse to Russia in the meantime?
And that’s not all. Where are the shipping tankers or logistics of transportation and storage, not to say the new skilled workers — and technology — which would be required to make the Russia-minus energy workable for the Europeans?
As it is, the cost of energy has risen three-fold in Europe which continues to buy oil from Grazprom to the tune of $200 million per day, and that too in Rubles, the currency they wished to destroy in baiting the Russian bear on Ukraine.
Now Rubles is doing better than ever, after initially dropping to pennies against the US dollars — it has jumped 40% against Dollar since January — and the pain of economic sanctions are actually beginning to be felt in the Western capitals. Inflation is going through the roof and popular unrest is brewing.
Energy prices in the EU and America have spiked to 40-year highs; recession is staring in eye; supply lines have sunk, food shortages are stark and gas-oil prices are going through the roof.
Meanwhile, the current-account surplus for Russia this year could be at $250 billion which would be more than double the $120 billion measured in 2021. From gas sales alone, Russia could earn a record $100 billion from European countries in 2022 as energy prices have risen painfully high and its gas sales would be almost twice as much as last year. And all this when one is not taking into account the profits from the sale of other Russian commodities, such as oil, coal and other minerals.
What Putin Wants
And this situation isn’t going to change at least till the year-end by when one Mr Putin would hold all the cards and press with his long-standing demand of NATO going back to its 1997 level.
That was the year when West had repeatedly assured a post-Soviet Union Russia that NATO wouldn’t expand eastwards but completely did otherwise to the extent that out of the 27 European Union (EU) states, 21 are in NATO today.
Russia has made no secret of what it wants: That NATO returns to its 1997 levels and a collective security is in place for nations of the European continent.
Instead, West chose to bait Russia on Ukraine with constant needling while the Moscow kept repeating it would intervene militarily which it did. Put in Russia’s shoes, would the United State allow its neighbourhood of Cuba, Nicaragua etc armed to the teeth with nuclear-missile launchpads? NO.
That’s why I said West is now looking for a settlement and call for negotiations would now make headlines in the mainstream media, captive as it is to its Western masters.
The truth is, sanctions have failed, and instead of Rubles it’s the Dollars which is losing its hegemony world over.
Countries are now trading in mutual currencies and before the year is out, Russia would have floated a commodity-based exchange currency system which would resonate around the world.
The US dollars, supported by multilateral global institutions, would be bypassed by the world for two reasons: One, why trust a currency which already is in a kind of debt it could not repay; and Two, who is to trust a Superpower which one fine morning could seize your assets and reserves with the Western banks?
The truth remains that the Western sanctions have failed; Russia’s Rubles is in pink health; and Ukraine has disintegrated. There is no sign of a popular rising in Moscow which the West had hoped for in getting rid of Mr Putin. Indeed, the Russian strongman holds all the aces presently.
The only face-saving measure, as I said, is for the West to negotiate for a settlement between Kiev and Moscow. But they have missed the moment. Russia is winning the war and there’s no way West could stop it. That’s the ugly truth.
Given how Ukraine-2 could crop up on Russia’s border in a decade’s time, Russia wouldn’t settle for anything less than NATO back to 1997 levels. As for the territories ceded in form of Crimea, Donbass and those with access to Black Sea, Ukraine can do little but accept that it has been reduced to a strip of land.
It has been a disaster all the way for them. And the West.